Journal Articles, Book Chapters, and Policy Reports
China’s Role in Reshaping the International Financial Architecture: Blunting U.S. Power and Building Regional Order
This chapter in the 2019 edition of Strategic Asia explores the strategic foundations of China’s efforts to reshape the international financial architecture. It argues that China faces the dual risk of conflict with the United States and encirclement by wary neighbors, factors which together influence its international financial strategy. To deal with the United States, China has pursued strategies to blunt U.S. financial power through support for monetary diversification and the creation of parallel payment and credit rating institutions — all of which reduce its vulnerability to U.S. financial coercion. To deal with its neighbors, China has pursued strategies to build financial leverage over them. It has promoted a renminbi zone, new financial institutions, and infrastructure investment that together foster asymmetric interdependence.
Beijing’s Bismarckian Ghosts: How Great Powers Compete Economically (With Markus Brunnermeier and Harold James)
This article argues that the Anglo-German economic contest a century ago holds eerie parallels to today’s US-China rivalry. Both rivalries take place amidst economic interdependence and explosive innovation. Both feature a rising autocracy with a state-protected economic system challenging an established democracy with a free-market economic system. And importantly, both go way beyond tariffs: then as now, great power economic competition involved standard setting, technology theft, financial coercion, and infrastructure investment. This multifaceted approach to great power economic rivalry is one that the United States must relearn as competition with China intensifies.
Strategic Providence and the American Journey in Asia (With Kurt M. Campbell)
This piece reviews Mike Green’s By More than Providence. First, it explores Green’s claim that U.S. Asia strategy has historically focused on preventing the region from falling under the hegemonic control of others. Second, it applies Green’s intriguing finding that effective Asia strategy has relied less on power than on clarity of purpose and coordination of instruments to the Trump administrations Asia strategy. It notes that while the administration has shown greater clarity on the China challenge, its has struggled to implement consistent strategy despite the determined efforts of its Asia hands.
Civil Military Integration Potential in Chinese Shipbuilding (with Dan Alderman)
This chapter, which appeared in the Naval Institute Press book China’s Naval Shipbuilding, explored the ways in which Beijing has sought to integrate civilian and military shipbuilding technology as it expands the People’s Liberation Army Navy. It first examines central-level policy directives on civil-military integration in shipbuilding, demonstrating how the government views civilian shipbuilding as financially and technologically essential for military shipbuilding. The second section focuses on examples of actual diffusion from the commercial to the military shipbuilding sector in three areas: shipyards and relevant infrastructure, ship design and production, and sub-components and systems integration.
Beyond the San Hai: The Challenge of China's Blue-Water Navy (with Patrick Cronin, Mira Rapp-Hooper, Harry Krejsa, and Alexander Sullivan)
This report for CNAS argues that China’s ability to conduct power projection and amphibious operations around the world will become a fundamental fact of politics in the near future. China’s decision to look “beyond the san hai” - that is, the nearby Yellow Sea, South China Sea, and East China Sea - could mark an end to decades of uncontested U.S. naval supremacy across the open ocean. The report discusses the development of China's blue-water navy, its deployments to the Indian Ocean and beyond, the ways in which its far-seas capabilities will have near-seas implications, and recommendations for the United States and its allies.